The Middle East and North Africa are experiencing food insecurity as a result of population expansion and a rise in the demand for imported goods. In 2022, this dependence on imported grains—particularly those transported across the Black Sea—has been brought to light by Ukraine and Russia. Food security may be jeopardized if conflict escalation affects Black Sea grain exports and causes shortages or price increases abroad. Even if a de-escalatory trajectory materializes, the events of July will still have a detrimental effect on trade through the Black Sea. Contingency planning should be done by aid actors to control these risks.
- If a severe conflict escalation affects Black Sea export infrastructure, international grain shortages or price increases might threaten and/or worsen regional food security.
- Global system dynamics and the Black Sea conflict could worsen or sustain significant price shocks for vital food commodities.
- Despite a deescalatory trajectory in the next few months, events since July will continue to harm Black Sea trade through significant risks and costs to commercial vessels.
- Aid agencies should plan for global food price shocks and grain shortages in fragile contexts, which will increase needs and strain capacities in a tightening financing landscape.
